New research flips climate change theory on its head!
In a groundbreaking study that challenges the conventional wisdom on climate change, independent researcher Dai Ato claims that the driving force behind rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels may not be human activity, as widely believed, but rather natural variations in sea surface temperature (SST).
This bold assertion, if substantiated, could upend decades of climate science and significantly influence global environmental policies.
The study, published in the Science of Climate Change journal, utilized multivariate analysis to investigate the primary factors affecting CO₂ levels in the atmosphere. Ato’s analysis reveals that SST, a natural variable, is the most significant predictor of annual increases in atmospheric CO₂. In contrast, human emissions, long held to be the main culprit behind climate change, were found to be statistically insignificant in driving CO₂ levels.
“We’ve been focusing on the wrong target,” Ato stated in the report. “The data show that sea surface temperature, which fluctuates naturally due to various climatic processes, has a much stronger correlation with CO₂ levels than human emissions do.
This doesn’t mean we should ignore human impacts on the environment, but it does suggest that we need to rethink the role of natural processes in climate change.”
Ato’s findings are based on a thorough analysis of publicly available data from some of the most respected sources in climate research, including NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The research compared SST data from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), and the UK’s Hadley Centre with human CO₂ emissions data from the IEA and Our World in Data (OWID). The statistical model used by Ato showed that SST was the predominant factor influencing CO₂ concentrations, with a strong predictive model (R² = 0.663, P < 7e-15) when using GISS SST data post-1959.
The study’s results are particularly striking when examining the period after 1979. For this period, the multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that SST was the only significant explanatory variable for the increase in atmospheric CO₂, with UAH SST data showing a regression coefficient B = 1.964, P < 4e-5, and a model R² of 0.571. In stark contrast, human emissions, whether from IEA or OWID sources, did not exhibit a significant impact, with values far below statistical relevance.
This study arrives at a time when the global consensus on climate change is increasingly under scrutiny. While organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assert that human activity is the primary driver of recent climate shifts, there has been a growing chorus of dissent from skeptics.
Nobel laureate in Physics, John Clauser, has recently criticized the prevailing view, suggesting that natural factors may play a larger role than is commonly acknowledged. Clauser’s sentiments echo Ato’s findings, which imply that current climate models might overestimate the impact of human CO₂ emissions while underestimating natural climatic processes like SST fluctuations.
However, Ato’s research is not without its critics. Dr. Michael Mann, a prominent climate scientist and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State, cautions against jumping to conclusions based on Ato’s findings. “While the relationship between SST and CO₂ is an interesting area of study, it doesn’t negate the overwhelming evidence that human activity is driving current climate change,” Mann commented. “The risk here is that studies like this could be misinterpreted to downplay the urgency of addressing human-caused emissions.”
Indeed, Ato’s study does not deny the reality of global warming or the fact that climate change is occurring. Instead, it suggests that the processes behind rising CO₂ levels may be more complex and influenced by natural factors to a greater extent than previously thought. This complexity underscores the need for continued research and open scientific debate on the subject.
A closer look at the data further supports Ato’s claims. For example, the study points to the strong Pearson correlation between SST and CO₂ levels, with a correlation coefficient r = 0.9995 (P < 3e-92) when using the GISS SST dataset post-1959. The predicted CO₂ concentrations using this SST data showed an extremely close match with the actual NOAA measurements, with a minimal error of 1.45 ppm in 2022. This level of accuracy in prediction, according to Ato, is a clear indication that SST plays a more dominant role in the annual increases of atmospheric CO₂ than previously acknowledged.
Moreover, the study highlights specific years where natural phenomena significantly impacted CO₂ levels. For instance, in 1992, following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, global temperatures dropped, and the increase in atmospheric CO₂ was only 0.49 ppm, despite human emissions that should have theoretically led to a much higher increase. Conversely, during the strong El Niño years of 1998 and 2016, CO₂ levels surged by nearly 3 ppm, far exceeding the expected rise based on human emissions alone. These examples further illustrate Ato’s argument that natural temperature fluctuations, rather than human emissions, are the primary drivers of CO₂ variability.
As climate change continues to dominate global discourse, the implications of Ato’s findings could be profound.
If SST is indeed the primary driver of atmospheric CO₂ levels, then current efforts to mitigate climate change through reducing human emissions needs to be re-evaluated.
This could shift the focus towards understanding and possibly managing natural climate processes. However, this perspective is contentious, and many in the scientific community stress the importance of continuing to reduce human emissions, citing the vast body of evidence linking them to global warming.
In conclusion, Dai Ato’s research offers a fresh perspective on the ongoing climate debate. By highlighting the potential influence of natural factors like SST on CO₂ levels, it challenges the prevailing narrative and calls for a broader understanding of the forces shaping our planet’s climate.
As the discussion evolves, one thing is clear: the science of climate change is far from settled, and continued exploration is essential.
Whether Ato’s findings will lead to a significant shift in climate policy or simply add another layer to the complex debate remains to be seen, but they certainly provoke a necessary re-evaluation of our assumptions about what drives the changes in our atmosphere.
References:
Multivariate Analysis Rejects the Theory of Human-caused Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Increase, Dai Ato, Vol. 4.2 (2024) (PDF)
Daily Sea Surface Temperature. This page provides time series and map visualizations of daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from NOAA Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) version 2.1
